Why is EV important?

Expected value is fundamental in decision-making under uncertainty. It allows us to make choices that maximize positive impact, even when outcomes are uncertain.

Endorsements

Nate Silver in On the Edge:

Society would be generally better off–I’ll confidently contend–if people understood the nature of expected value and specifically the importance of low-probability, high-impact events, whether they come in the form of fantastic protential payoffs or catastrophic risks.

Effective Altruism (EA) is a movement that aims to find the best ways to help others using evidence and reason. This post in the Effective Altruism (EA) forum asks what the top concept is that all EAs should understand:

The most highly upvoted answer was expected value!

This tweet emphasizes the reliance on EV for using evidence and reason: